A new hierarchical evaluation approach for risk response strategy selection in BOT projects under uncertainty

Document Type : Research Paper


1 Department of Civil Engineering, Qeshm Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qeshm, Iran

2 Associate professor, Technical and Engineering Faculty, University of Qom, Qom, Iran

3 Assistant professor, Department of Architecture, Science and research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran



One of the topics in the world today is related to the production and development of infrastructure projects under the supervision and control of governments, in which the government has no operational role and acts as an observer. This type of production is called BOT, which brings both the risk and the project's profit to the private sector company. In such projects, before concluding a contract, the government gives a concession to a private company for a certain period to deliver the completed project, and on the other hand, it assigns the risks in the project to the investing company in full. In this research, the risks in BOT projects are investigated and using a proposed approach under the conditions of intuitive fuzzy uncertainty and multi-period systems, the weights of these indicators are calculated, and the strategies in this research are ranked. Finally, a case study is presented to construct a highway project, and the efficiency of the proposed method compared to a traditional method is measured. Meanwhile, the performance of the proposed approach is analyzed by eliminating contributions such as the last aggregation concept, criteria weights determination, experts’ weights computations. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis is provided to represent the robustness and sensitiveness of the main parameters.


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